Categories

Apr

19

NBA Playoffs – First Round Predictions From Slam Dunk Central Reporter Stephen Rhodes

Posted by Stephen Rhodes under NBA PLAYOFFS

????????????????????????????????????????

Well folks, the second season (read: NBA playoffs) is officially upon us.? And with that, we have some interesting team matchups; below, you will find the team matchups in question, key player matchup(s) and what each team needs to do to win their respective series:

Saturday, April 19

?Phoenix Suns (55-27) vs. ?San Antonio Spurs (56-26)

Key Matchup: Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix) vs. Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

What Phoenix has to do to win the series: Oddly enough, because this is the Phoenix Suns, they can play whatever game the mathcups dictate.? In other words, if they choose to face San Antonio’s slow-down offense, then Shaquille O’Neal will see major minutes at center.? If the Spurs, on the other hand, want to fast-break, then the Suns can counter with a lineup such as: Nash, Bell/Barbosa, Hill, Diaw, Stoudemire.? I expect Phoenix to use the run-and-gun decidedly more than the slow-down offense.? Because of the interchangeability of the Suns’ lineup, some matchups will be mismatches.

What San Antonio needs to do to win the series: Simple – slow the pace of the game down.? While the Spurs can run with the Suns, it is not their bread and butter at all.? Spurs coach Greg Popovich, like Suns coach Mike D’Antoni, will be working overtime decising plays that will attempt to exploit their opponents’ weaknesses.? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manu Ginobili become the key in this series for San Antonio.

Prediction: San Antonio in 6.

?Dallas Mavericks (51-31) vs. ?New Orleans Hornets (56-26)

Key Matchup: Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas) vs. David West (New Orleans)

What Dallas needs to do to win the series: Slow down New Orleans point guard Chris Paul.? Get the rock more to Jason Terry;?Terry can exploit the Mavs’ lack of talent at the SG position (save for Josh Howard).? Tyson Chandler will need to step up his game on defense as?Nowitzki will be in his grill while on the floor.

What New Orleans needs to do to win the series: Keep Paul on the floor from 37-40 minutes per game.? Get the ball to Peja Stojakovic more as he has the advantage at the SF position (like Stackhouse/George/Jones will scare folks).? Paul won’t need to score nearly as much as he needs to get his teammates more open shots.

Prediction:?New Orleans in 5.

?Utah Jazz (54-28) vs. ?Houston Rockets (55-27)

Key Matchup: Mehmet Okur (Utah) vs. Dikembe Mutumbo (Houston)

What Utah needs to do to win the series:?Believe it or not, not nearly as much as people think.? Boozer should be able to exploit?Houston’s Luis Scola as should Utah’s Deron Williams be able to do the same against Houston’s 3-headed point guard (Alston/Jackson/Head).? Okur, because of his outside game, should have a decided advantage against Mutombo as Deke’s calling card is his interior defense.? And we all know that Okur can shoot the 3, when called upon.

What Houston needs to do to win the series: Get the ball to McGrady early and often; this is the one mismatch that may work in Houston’s favor, despite Utah having Andrei Kirilenko.? Shane Battier should get lots of looks, too.? You may also want to keep an eye out on Carl Landry; he came on strong towards season’s end and has momentum on his side.

Prediction: Utah in 6.

?Washington Wizards (43-39) vs. ?Cleveland Cavaliers (45-37)

Key Matchup: Caron Butler (Washington) vs. LeBron James (Cleveland)

What Washington needs to do to win the series: Somehow shut down James.? Do that and they stand a good chance of advancing.? A good analogy here, re: shutting down James – cut off the head and the heart is the next thing to go.? Arenas will need to take advantage of the Cavs’ lack of a point guard by both scoring and dishing out the rock.? If Brendan Haywood can somewhat neutralize the Cavs’ Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland will have to rely on the outside game even more, which should work to Washington’s advantage.

What Cleveland needs to do to win the series: Get LeBron the ball close to 30 times a game; sorry folks, the Cavaliers are what they are:?a bit too one-dimensional for my tastes.? Daniel Gibson will need to get more involved in the offense and Ben Wallace will have to get more involved, as opposed to the regular season.? Wallace is going to have to be the defensive stopper yet again.? Anderson Varejao will have to continue his frenetic style of play if Cleveland expects to advance to the second round.

Prediction: Cleveland in 7.

Sunday, April 20

?Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs. ?Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)

Key Matchup: Marcus Camby (Denver) vs. Pau Gasol (Los Angeles Lakers)

What Denver needs to do to win the series: Because this is the Western Conference, the run-and-gun offense is en vogue.? Denver will need to exploit the mismatch between Carmelo Anthony and Los Angeles’ Luke Walton/Sasha Vujacic.? Denver won’t be able to contain Kobe Bryant, so they’ll have to re-focus their energies on other players, such as Pau Gasol and to a lesser degree, Lamar Odom.? Allen Iverson should enjoy a degree of success against the Lakers’ point guards (Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar).? More importantly, Camby will have to neutralize the interior as Bryant?and Gasol will be making frequent trips to the paint.

What Los Angeles needs to do to win the series: Get the ball to Bryant between 22-25 times a game; it’s that simple.? That’s the one mismatch LA has going for them.? Odom will be need to be involved too as he should be able to dominate Eduardo Najera?and to a degree, Linas Kleiza.

Prediction: Los Angeles in 5.

?Toronto Raptors (41-41) vs. ?Orlando Magic (52-30)

Key Matchup: Chris Bosh (Toronto) vs. Hedo Turkoglu (Orlando)

What Toronto will need to do to win the series:?Get the 2-headed point guard (Jose Calderon/T.J. Ford) more involved as they can shut down Jameer Nelson, if used wisely.? Bosh should be able to succeed against Turkoglu as Hedo isn’t exactly known for his defensive skills.

What Orlando needs to do to win the series: Howard’s the key for the Magic here, while Turkoglu is Plan B.? Howard’s job is simple: man the interior, alter (or even block) some shots, and get the ball around 20 times per game.? Turkoglu should be able to exploit the Raptors’ small forwards (Moon/Kapono).? A better defensive effort by Nelson would help as Ford and Calderon will go to the paint often.

Prediction: Orlando in 6.

?Philadelphia 76ers (40-42) vs. ?Detroit Pistons (59-23)

Key matchup: Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia) vs, Tayshaun Prince (Detroit)

What Philadelphia needs to do to win the series: Andre Miller could very well be the key to the 76ers’ future success as he will need to somewhat contain Detroit’s Chauncey Billups and at times, Richard Hamilton.? Samuel Dalembert will need to man up in the?interior as Philadelphia’s players like to visit the paint.? In essence – alter some (and also block) shots.? Thaddeus Young has a chance to shine too, assuming he can shake off Prince.

What Detroit needs to do to win the series: Hamilton and Billups will need to get involved early in the series to set the tone for an early 76ers exit from this series.? Antonio McDyess has a chance to exploit the 76ers’ power forwards (Reggie Evans/Thaddeus Young).? Establish more of an outside game as Philadelphia’s Dalembert patrols the paint.? Oh yeah – Rasheed Wallace needs to keep his temper in check.

Prediction: Detroit in 5.

?Atlanta Hawks (37-45) vs. ?Boston Celtics (66-16)

Key Matchup: Mike Bibby (Atlanta) vs. Rajon Rondo/Sam Cassell (Boston)

What Atlanta needs to do to win the series: Hope for Celtics’ injuries (yeah right).? Also hope that Boston overlooks them (not very likely).? They need a career series from Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby and perhaps Josh Smith.? Tito Horford will have the slight advantage?at center (he’s really a power forward, but I digress) and should be more aggressive against the Celtics’ Kendrick Perkins and P.J. Brown.

What Boston needs to do to win the series: Not much alteration to the roster or game plan is necessary.? The Big?Three (Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett) should be able to exploit the Hawks’ lack of experience in the postseason at will.? They’re thin at center, but that’s not necessarily a disadvantage – right now.

Prediction: Boston in 4.?

Updates, Fresh From the Oven, Straight to Your Inbox