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Here we go again..

For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, the Phoenix Suns and the San Antonio Spurs meet in the playoffs, providing several high scoring games and many unforgettable moments. Who can forget the Robert Horry hip check on Steve Nash in Game Four of the 2007 Western Conference Semis? Or the Tony Parker-Steve Nash collision in Game One of that same series, causing Nash to miss most of the end of a tight ball game? Or Tim Duncan’s game tying three pointer in Game One of their 2008 First Round Series, a shot which set the tone for the rest of the series?

The Suns have not beaten the Spurs in the playoffs since 2000, a series in which the Spurs played without Tim Duncan due to a knee injury. Can the Suns finally reverse the curse against San Antonio?

Starting Lineups

Phoenix

PG Steve Nash
SG Jason Richardson
SF Grant Hill
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Jarron Collins

San Antonio

PG George Hill
SG Manu Ginobili
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Tim Duncan
C Antonio McDyess

Key Matchup

Of course, the Duncan-Stoudemire battle down in the trenches will be closely watched all series. Tony Parker and Steve Nash will always create fireworks when they hit the court. But, Grant Hill‘s defense on Manu Ginobili could very well decide the series.

Hill is the Suns’ best preimeter defender and should see some time on the quick Ginobili before the series is said and done. In their last series, Hill defended the Portland’s Andre Miller for most of Games Five and Six, both Phoenix victories. With Hill guarding Miller, Portland’s offense stalled and had to play from behind in both games. Hill, a great three point shooter with the ability to drive to the basket, could give Ginobili fits on defense.

Ginobili, meanwhile, is the catalyst of the Spurs’ offense. His ability to break down defenses and find the open teammate are a big reason for the Spurs’ mid season turnaround. He is fearless driving to the basket, and will be against a Phoenix team with no real shot blocker in the middle.

Analysis

This series has the making of another classical Spurs-Suns series.

Phoenix comes in confident after finishing out Portland last Thursday. When asked about trying to reverse the curse against San Antonio in recent years, Steve Nash reminded reporters that only three players (Stoudemire, Nash, and Leandro Barbosa) from the current roster have played in those battles. He is right. The Suns have added more depth since and could be the most complete Suns team the Spurs have faced. Players like Goran Dragic and Leandro Barbosa provide energy and play-making ability for the Suns off the bench. Channing Frye is a big man who can spread the floor for Phoenix, much like Matt Bonner does for San Antonio. Jared Dudley and Louis Amundson will likely match up against Tim Duncan during the series. How they match up against the Spurs’ bench is a key to the series.

Likewise, the Spurs will need support for their Big Three of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker in order to knock off the Suns. Sophomore George Hill has thrived in the playoffs since returning from an ankle injury late in the season and was the Spurs’ biggest contributor outside the Big Three. Against Dallas, Hill hit big shot after big shot in victories in Games 4 and 6, including a 29 point effort in the Game 4 win. Richard Jefferson showed flashes of brilliance against Dallas and should continue to find his spots in the Spurs’ offense. Antonio McDyess played superb defense on Dirk Nowitzki and hit the outside shot enough to keep Dallas’ defense honest. Matt Bonner provided help rebounding and scored well both from the three point line and driving to the basket. Dejuan Blair brings length, energy and hustle of the bench. Together, they formed one of the best benches in the league.

Injuries could play a key part of the series. Except for Ginobili’s nose, the Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been in years. Tony Parker has some plantar fascitis, but it should not limit him in the series. Tim Duncan’s knees are something the Spurs monitor closely from game to game.

Meanwhile, C Robin Lopez did not play for the Suns last series due to a bulging disk in his back. But, he has started to practice and may play in the series. The Suns could definitely use their best shot blocker against the Spurs pick and roll game. Steve Nash’s hip has also caused him some problems the last few days and has sat out practice in recent days.

On offense, the Suns will try to run the ball on the older Spurs and try to score quick baskets in transition. Their frenetic, fast pace against Portland in Games Five and Six was too much for the Blazers to handle. This means the Suns will likely go to a “small ball” lineup to try to control the tempo of the game.

The Spurs will have to guard well in transition and control the tempo of the game. A slower, half court style game suits the Spurs better. Their pick and roll game should do well against the Suns if they decide to go to a smaller lineup with no real shot blockers.

The team that controls the tempo should win this series. It should make for another fun and memorable Spurs-Suns series. Let this Wild West Shootout begin!